Nowadays, humanity is faced with an unprecedented, multifaceted crisis. The combination of the Covid-19 pandemic and its looming economic impact is leading to a recession, unheard-of in recent times, and the business world - along with the society - is sailing in uncharted waters.

In this period of uncertainty, Grant Thornton Greece is attempting to make a primary assessment of the pandemic's effects on the Greek economy, and the measures adopted to reduce them, but also to evaluate the magnitude of the recession that will follow the gradual lifting of measures by the end of 2020.

Study identity

The present study examines the expected effects of the economic conditions as developed due to Covid-19, on the critical sizes of the Greek businesses, as well as on the Greek economy in its entirety. The study is divided into three sections:

  • The first section outlines the industries affected by COVID-19

  • The second section presents our assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on the Greek economy as an aggregate (GDP).

  • The third section presents our estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on key sizes of the Greek businesses for the purposes of assessing business liquidity in 2020 as compared to the previous year. 

Key study conclusions

  • Businesses representing 69% of the total turnover of Greek businesses were directly affected by the Covid 19 pandemic as a result of limitation or even cessation of their operations.
  • In total, businesses that generate a turnover of € 32.9 billion (11% of the total turnover) and employ approximately 1.1 million executives (25% of the total) have ceased operations due to the pandemic.
  • The initial estimate shows that in 2020, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will decrease by 8.5%. The impact of the pandemic on high-value-added tourism-related industries of the economy, such as transport, accommodation and catering, contribute to the decrease of GDP.
  • Given a sample of 17,000 companies with a turnover of over € 200 k.
    ‒ a decrease in turnover by -12.4% is expected to be recorded in 2020.
    ‒ a decrease in operating profitability (EBITDA) by -39% is expected to be recorded in 2020.
    ‒ a decrease in liquidity by € 5.6 billion is estimated to be recorded as a result of the limitations and the economic impact of the pandemic on their operations.